Vaccines: When Non Correlation Implies Causation

Between 1900-1909 there was an average of 8377 deaths per year associated with measles. The Population of The United States in 1909 was 92,228,486. This places the mortality risk of measles as 1 in 11,010.

In 1962 there were 408 Deaths from the Measles. The population of the United States in 1962 was 186,537,737. This place the mortality risk of Measles as 1 in 457,200.
This accounts for a 97.6 percent of the population-corrected decline in measles mortality on its own or a decrease in measles death instances by more than 4,000% in 53 years leading into the end of 1962.

In 1963 the first Measles vaccine was introduced in the United States. Finally. We couldn’t bear any more declines in mortality rates.


I use Measles as an example because of the recent hysteria but this trend continued with most diseases in the 20th century. Something was lowering disease instances and mortality rates throughout the century for not just vaccine available diseases but diseases like typhus, cholera, rheumatic and scarlet fever – for which there are no vaccines – because of improvements in social conditions. Take your pick: Better overall healthcare, actual herd immunity, indoor plumbing, washing our hands etc. are all viable options but not Vaccines as they had not been introduced yet. This is not the message you hear from Vaccination advocates.

I'm starting to see a pattern...
I’m starting to see a pattern…

I’m a fan of Football references. Vaccine Advocates speak of the Measles Vaccines sort of like it was Joe Montana in Super Bowl XXIII. Down in the 4th Quarter with several minutes to go, with all hope lost people dying in the streets of Measles, Joe Cool leads the 49ers to a Game winning drive scoring in the nick of time. Measles Vaccines saved the day.

But that’s a shitty analogy. Vaccines are no Joe Montana sparking a last minute comeback. The rout was already on before the introductions of the Measles Vaccines. If we are going to make this Football analogy work we need a meaningless Superbowl Blowout reference.

Maybe Vaccines are Steve Young. Going 2/3 for 20 Yards in Dust-up duty on the back end of a 55-10 Superbowl XXIV blowout. Steve Young was a Superbowl MVP and a Hall of Famer in his own right. Maybe Vaccines would have done all the amazing things its supporters say it would have done (“Measles has Declined 103% since the introduction of the Vaccine!”) if it had just gotten off the bench sooner.

Maybe Vaccines are William Refrigerator Perry. Up 37-3 in Superbowl XX the Bears could have handed it to Walter Payton but he went all cartoony and put the Ball in the fridges hands. Maybe Vaccines are a comical and useless side show on the road to a blowout.

46-10.  You couldn't have done it without me...
46-10. You couldn’t have done it without me…

Those are your two options folks. Well maybe a third. There is a Russell Wilson analogy in here somewhere.

Steve Young did not win Superbowl XXIV (But he would have). Da Bears did not need the fridge in the Backfield (Ditka just hand it to sweetness!). And Vaccines are not responsible for declines in disease mortality rates before they were introduced.


Unless you are arguing that viruses started committing seppuku in anticipation of the horror that would occur once vaccines were introduced.

Now I know there are dear people on the other side of this issue and I make no effort to change their opinion. After all if I wanted to potentially change an opinion I would post a snazzy picture of Merck HQs with Bars around it or $$$ and crying children, as is customary in the age of the meme. I certainly would not employ reason and logic and math for fucks sake.

But with talk of forced vaccination and pariah status for the un-vaccinated I do want you to draw a line in the sand and state clearly which side of the issue you are on. And to understand the company you keep.

“Merck, the pharmaceutical giant, is facing a slew of controversies over its Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) vaccine following numerous allegations of wrongdoing from different parties in the medical field, including two former Merck scientists-turned-whistleblowers. A third whistleblower, this one a scientist at the Centers for Disease Control, also promises to bring Merck grief following his confession of misconduct involving the same MMR vaccine.”

Merck has a little bit of a problem now. The “different parties” Merck has been accused by are:

1. Two former Merck scientists that said that there was massive manipulation of data to make the vaccine appear more effective. ((Cough cough increased disease outbreak))
2. A CDC researcher that says Merck and the CDC manipulated the data so that a small but statistically significant causal link between the vaccine being linked with certain childhood developmental (Ahem – The big “A”) disappeared.
3. A competing drug company that’s pissed they missed out on all that sweet vaccination profits. That shit I just find funny.

Merck to their credit did what they always do as their crisis control model was shown when Vioxx was killing over 100,000 people:

1. Hide relevant statistical information showing the drugs ineffectiveness or potential dangers
2. Smear Doctors that speak out against them
3. Try to Squash the Lawsuits

4. Finally Pay a seemingly large but ultimately small in relations to profits fine. (Nostradamus alert: THIS IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE FOR THE MMR VACCINE)

Speaking of the company you keep that’s the “The Science is Settled” team.

Despite my earlier attempt at sports analogy Science isn’t a sporting event where you try to run out the clock. It’s a continuous process. It’s never settled. Which is how science, real science, actually works.

But we know the Merck game plan already. While the science may never be settled history does repeat itself…


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